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Personal Sedan Sales In Jeopardy As U.S. Auto Market Transitions To “Islands” Of Autonomous Mobility: KPMG Research

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LOS ANGELES, Nov. 27, 2017 /PRNewswire/ — KPMG predicts that self-driving cars and mobility services will provide options that will reduce consumer desire to own cars, particularly sedans. Pushing a button for mobility services competes with the utility of sedans, and both give consumers the freedom to buy the car they really want to own or utilize mobility by the trip. In fact, KPMG projects that sales of personally-owned sedans in the U.S. will drop precipitously – from 5.4 million units sold today to just 2.1 million units by 2030.

KPMG analyzed anonymized cell phone ping data that identified the location (longitude and latitude) and time of travel for individual trips within prototypical American cities — Chicago, Atlanta and the greater Los Angeles-San Diego metropolitan area. The research revealed different segmentation within each island market based on miles traveled, average trip duration, and estimated vehicle occupancy. KPMG’s findings showed that each island will require a different mix of vehicles and…

In addition, according to the KPMG report, the transportation market will evolve from a national or regional one to 150-plus “islands of autonomy” – metropolitan areas that each have their own distinct mix of consumer travel needs delivered by autonomous mobility services. 

“Across the world, a $1 trillion market is swiftly developing around a new and disruptive transportation mode: driverless vehicles coupled with mobility services,” said Gary Silberg, (@slfdriveSilberg) Automotive Sector leader at KPMG LLP. “However, the adoption of this new transportation mode will not be immediate, and it will not be everywhere. Instead, it will arrive metro market by metro market in what we call ‘islands of autonomy.’ Each island will need a unique mix of vehicles to meet unique demands, which will greatly impact the breakdown of the car park, especially sedans.”

Follow the conversation on @KPMGUS_News using the hashtags: #KPMGauto and #islandsofautonomy. For more information on KPMG’s Islands of Autonomy research, please visit: www.kpmg.com/us/automotive

In the United States, there are 169 communities of 300,000 persons or more — in Census Bureau terms, Combined Statistical Areas (CSAs) comprised of cities with distinct metropolitan centers economically and socially linked to surrounding areas. Each of these CSAs fit the demographics of an island of autonomy.

To gain a better sense of the individual nature of markets using geographic information systems (GIS), KPMG

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